From Robert Murphy’s blog:
…here’s something that has been bothering me about this fancy-pants economist critique of Ron Paul. (I’ve seen at least three economists make this argument.) It goes like this (paraphrasing):
[RPM's PARAPHRASING OF ACTUAL ECONOMIST CRITICS OF RON PAUL:]
Ron Paul is either a liar or a fool. The fact that the USD has lost 95% or whatever of its purchasing power since 1913, is completely irrelevant. To a first approximation, if the prices of goods have risen 20x (or whatever), then wages have risen 20x too, because of the printing press. Now in reality, wages have actually risen faster than most prices, and that is because productivity has risen over the decades. But if money is non-neutral at least in the long-run–and even Austrians claim they agree with this proposition–then the printing press doesn’t affect the real marginal productivity of labor. So nobody is really made poorer by the Fed, or at least, the factoid about the dollar losing 95% of its purchasing power since 1913 is a complete non sequitur. What would be scarier–if Ron Paul realizes this and cites the stat anyway, or if he is considered an expert on monetary policy and doesn’t know these elementary things?!
OK like I said upfront, I am super busy so I’m not going to be as cool as Krugman and literally do a formal model on this. But go ahead and write up a general equilibrium model with all the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed, where one agent has a printing press. Characterize an equilibrium where the agent with the printing press has the money stock grow at (say) 5% per year, and the agent uses this newly-produced money to buy a constant stream of consumption goods. Make the workers and the owners of capital have cash-in-advance constraints so that in equilibrium, they want to hold money.
OK so when you get that all pinned down, it is clearly the case that every year, the agent with the printing press siphons real consumption away that the workers and capitalists physically produce. If you set the rate of inflation to 0%, then clearly the printing press owner would consume 0% from that point onward, leaving the full product to the workers and capitalists. But at a positive rate of monetary inflation, there is a systematic flow of real goods out of the bellies of the other people and into the belly of the guy with the printing press.
So already we see that the “wages adjust in the long-run” isn’t quite right. It’s leaving out the crucial issue that the Ron Paul people are complaining about. (And this can happen with rational expectations, even with perfect certainty, in the model.)
Now here’s the point I’m not as sure about: I think I could come up with a pretty standard model, with “normal” utility functions blah blah blah, where we have a class of equilibria such that the proportion of total output transferred to the money-producer rises with the rate of price inflation, at least within a certain range. So in that class of equilibria, if somebody asked at time 87, “Hey, how much have we gotten ripped off in this timeline?” it would be an adequate answer to say, “Well, the price of a unit of food quoted in the money has risen by X%.”
UPDATE: I realized my last paragraph was very confusing. I don’t mean that I could come up with a model where an X% rise in the CPI corresponds to X% of GDP going to the money-producer. Rather, I meant that I think I can come up with a family of equilibria where there is a direct relationship between the total depreciation of the currency from time T=0, and the proportion of total GDP over the timespan that was diverted into the belly of the money-producer. So in that sense, if the dollar had lost 95% of its value since 1913, that would mean “the people” got ripped off a lot more over the years than if the dollar had only lost 2% of its value. Thus, the “naive” layperson applause for Ron Paul’s statements is a lot more defensible than the economist who cites “money neutrality” would have us believe.